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A democracy in doubt

Sydney Morning Herald - January 23, 2010

Matt Wade, Colombo – A helicopter overhead announced that the President had arrived. A packed stadium at Homagama, in south-western Sri Lanka, erupted as Mahinda Rajapaksa did a fly-past before landing.

Dressed in his trademark white tunic, sarong and red scarf, he was soon on the dais, ready to open the sports ground – named, of course, after himself.

With presidential elections next week, the inauguration of the Mahinda Rajapaksa International Sports Complex on Thursday was a tailor-made campaign event.

As youths performed gymnastics and athletics for the President, children prostrated themselves at his feet, then presented him with photographs and illustrations of himself. Before the helicopter whisked him away to his next campaign stop, he did a lap of the new stadium in a golf buggy, waving to the crowds.

Rajapaksa, who was elected President in 2005, has had a momentous first term.

In May he presided over the military defeat of the separatist Tamil Tigers, which brought peace to the island nation of 21 million for the first time in nearly 30 years.

The victory brought Rajapaksa a cult-like adoration among sections of his political base: the Sinhalese who make up more than 70 per cent of the population.

After the triumph over the Tigers, Rajapaksa was compared with the great Sri Lanka king Dutugemunu, a symbol of Sinhalese power who defeated an Indian Tamil king more than 2000 years ago. Some of Rajapaksa's followers dubbed him a modern-day incarnation of Dutugemunu.

Colombo was festooned with banners glorifying Rajapaksa with slogans like: "You are a divine gift to the country. May the gods bestow their blessings on you."

Some analysts say the postwar adulation for the President points to a growing authoritarianism. "Rajapaksa has created an image of himself as almost a king," says Dr Janaka Biyanwila, of the University of Western Australia. "But what is ultimately behind it is an increasingly authoritarian military state. Democracy is being thinned out."

There are signs Sri Lanka is moving towards a political model similar to such South-East Asian countries as Singapore or Malaysia. Biyanwila says this trend threatens to make a political solution for the country's deep ethnic divisions much more difficult.

Sri Lanka's postwar transition has also coincided with a sharp rise in the number of Tamils leaving by boat for Australia in the hope of asylum.

Mahinda Rajapaksa was born into a large high-caste family in the southern district of Hambantota. His father was a successful politician but not from the traditional urban ruling elite. The young Rajapaksa showed a flair for politics. He won a seat in parliament aged just 24 and gradually rose to dominate the centre-left Sri Lanka Freedom Party.

In 2004 he became the prime minister and in 2005 he was the party's presidential candidate. He got a lucky break when the Tigers' leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, called for a Tamil boycott of the poll. The decision helped deliver Rajapaksa a slender victory and paved the way for the downfall of Prabhakaran and his feared Tigers.

Soon after Rajapaksa became President, a ceasefire signed with the Tigers in 2002 began to fray. His government formally abandoned the truce in early 2008 and pursued a comprehensive military victory.

The war came to a bloody climax in the first few months of last year. Heavy casualties among Tamil civilians meant Sri Lanka came under intense international pressure for a ceasefire.

But Rajapaksa persisted and was rewarded with a stunning victory when Prabhakaran was shot dead and his cadres were routed on a battlefield on the north-east coast in May. Even though a presidential election was not due until December 2011, Rajapaksa decided to cash in on his wartime triumph and called next week's poll. Having presided over the defeat of the Tigers, he looked unbeatable.

But the political opposition may have found the one candidate who could successfully challenge him: General Sarath Fonseka, the military commander who engineered the defeat of the Tigers.

Fonseka, who was almost killed by a Tamil Tiger suicide-bomb attack on Colombo's army headquarters in 2006, is considered a war hero and is hugely popular in Rajapaksa's traditional support base.

In what proved to be a political blunder, Rajapaksa moved Fonseka from his job as army chief to a largely ceremonial post shortly after the war ended.

The disgruntled general quit as chief of defence staff in November and was named the "common candidate" for a curious opposition cluster that includes centre-right, Sinhalese nationalist and Tamil parties.

His decision to stand has captured the imagination of many voters and ignited a campaign that many thought a foregone conclusion.

"As Obama was for America, so Fonseka is for Sri Lanka," says Muhommad Iqbal, an auto-rickshaw driver in Colombo.

Iqbal, who speaks Tamil and wears the white skullcap and beard popular among Sri Lankan Muslims, is from one of the minority groups that will play a crucial role in the vote.

Ganegoda, a hospitality worker, says the country needs a change now that the war is over. He also fears what may happen if Rajapaksa wins another term. "It's just not good for anyone to have too much power."

Next week's election will be the first island-wide poll since the Tigers were defeated. This has made forecasts even more difficult because voting patterns in the war-torn north and east are hard to predict. The lack of reliable opinion polling means no one knows for sure if Fonseka's challenge will be successful, but Rajapaksa looks surprisingly vulnerable and many pundits predict a very close race.

Fonseka's candidacy has largely neutralised the military victory as a campaign issue and focused debate on other issues such as sharp rises in the cost of living, the difficult and expensive postwar reconstruction and allegations of corruption and presidential nepotism.

"Suddenly there was another man on the other side who had an equal claim to that war victory, so the issue of that victory was neutralised to a large extent and other issues surfaced, like tremendous corruption," says Jehan Perera, a political analyst who heads the National Peace Council in Colombo.

Arjuna Ranatunga, the former Sri Lankan cricket captain who is now a politician, shifted his support from Rajapaksa to Fonseka last month because of his concerns about corruption. "I was in the Government... the corruption was unbelievable so I resigned from the ministry," he says.

Rajapaksa's opponents have made many accusations of corruption, including misappropriating funds donated to help tsunami survivors in the President's own district of Hambantota. Local newspapers also claim to have exposed corruption by his relatives.

When Sri Lanka's Reserve Bank announced a relaxation of restrictions on foreign currency transactions this month some interpreted it as a move to assist corrupt government members to take money abroad. A report released by Transparency International this month said it had identified "an escalating trend of abuse of state resources as the date of the elections gets closer".

"People don't like the stories they hear about incredible corruption," Perera says.

Fonseka supporters in Colombo are campaigning with the slogan "If you want to feed your family vote for the general; if you want to feed the Rajapaksa family vote for the President."

In turn, the President's camp has accused Fonseka of benefiting from a corrupt arms deal, an allegation he strongly denies.

That three of Rajapaksa's brothers hold important posts – the Defence Secretary, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the presidential adviser Basil Rajapaksa and Minister for Ports and Aviation, Chamal Rajapaksa – adds to the perception that the family has too much power.

The opposition has also accused the President of arranging for several of his relatives and cronies to fill key posts in government and state-owned businesses.

"There is a certain fear that if the Rajapaksas win again their rule will become permanent," Perera says.

Rajapaksa has strongly denied allegations of corruption made against him.

When asked by journalists at the opening of the stadium on Thursday if he would win, he said: "Can't you see it in my face?... I am very confident."

Rohitha Bogollagama, the Foreign Minister, who has known Rajapaksa for 40 years, told the Herald that the President had a "comfortable" margin.

"The result is fairly well known in terms of the Government getting re-elected," he said. "He is the right man in the contest. He has done so well."

Yet independent analysts say the Sinhalese vote has split between Rajapaksa and Fonseka, making the votes of minorities crucial. Tamils in the north, who lived through war and months of detention last year and must now rebuild their lives in war-torn villages, could play a decisive role.

Mano Ganesan, a Tamil MP who is supporting Fonseka, says Tamils across the country will shun Rajapaksa. "The majority of Tamils will vote for Sarath Fonseka, not because they have started loving him but because they hate this regime and they want a change," he says.

However, Biyanwila believes that, whatever the election result, Sri Lanka's drift towards a more authoritarian political character will continue. "Already the military has become more embedded within the state because of the Rajapaksa clan, but if Fonseka wins it will be even more embedded."

[Matt Wade is the Herald's correspondent in South Asia.]

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