Home > South-East Asia >> Burma

Realpolitik revealed in Myanmar release

Asia Times - August 18, 2009

Brian McCartan, Bangkok – United States Senator Jim Webb's trip to military ruled Myanmar highlights again the difficulties of dealing with the ruling generals and brings into focus the debate over the usefulness of sanctions and the perceived growing influence of China in the region.

Webb flew into the capital of Myanmar, Naypyidaw, on Friday and held two days of discussions with senior regime leaders. The visit marked the second time Webb has traveled to Myanmar; he went previously as a private citizen in 2001. His trip as chairman of the East Asia and Pacific Affairs Sub-committee is part of a five-country fact-finding tour to explore opportunities for expanding US interests in the region. The visit made Webb the first US congressman in a decade to visit Myanmar.

At a press conference in Bangkok on Sunday, Webb said he made three requests of the generals: consider the release of John Yettaw on humanitarian grounds; grant permission for a meeting with pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi; and consider his "strong recommendation" to free Suu Kyi and allow her full participation in the political process.

To the surprise of some in the exile community, Webb was successful on the first two counts, but as expected Webb received, as he said, "no communication yet on number three". He secured the release of American citizen John Yettaw, who was sentenced to seven years of jail and hard labor for swimming across a Yangon lake and entering Suu Kyi's compound.

The international community, particularly among Western countries, was quick to condemn last week's verdict against Suu Kyi, which sentenced her to 18 months under house arrest. The European Union stepped up sanctions by including judges and some government-owned publications on its list of officials and members of the regime banned in the EU.

The verdict came amid a review of Myanmar policy by the Barack Obama administration. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton commented during a February visit to the region that sanctions had not brought the expected results and that the US was seeking ways to move forward. Much speculation has ensued since about the possible outcome of the review.

There have been signs that the US is considering closer engagement with the generals. During his confirmation hearings in June, new Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell said that the US was "prepared to reach out" to Myanmar, but the arrest of Suu Kyi made it "difficult to go forward". Clinton last month during a call for the release of Suu Kyi said, "This would open up, at least for my government, a lot of opportunities for engagement, and that includes investment and other forms of exchange."

With the arrest and sentencing of Suu Kyi, there are seemingly few options for the US but to continue with its sanctions regime. In May, Obama renewed the 1997 Investment Ban for American companies wishing to do business in Myanmar and in July he renewed the Burma Freedom and Democracy Act, which bans for another three years the importation of goods from Myanmar. Both Obama and Clinton condemned the verdict against Suu Kyi, labeling it an injustice and demanding her release. Clinton had also called for the release of Yettaw.

Some analysts see parallels in Webb's visit to conciliatory moves the Obama administration has made with other totalitarian regimes. In an overture to Iran in January, Obama said in an interview with al-Arabiya, "If countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us." The most recent example is former president Bill Clinton's visit to North Korea, which secured the release of two detained American journalists and sparked hopes of a thaw in US-North Korean relations.

The Obama administration gave its blessing to Webb's trip to Myanmar, leaving the impression his was a similar attempt to foster goodwill. Webb, while hopeful some confidence and goodwill had been built by the trip, made it clear at the press conference that he was acting only as a US senator and not as an envoy of the Obama administration. He claims he only offered the regime his own thoughts and perspectives on how the outside world views Myanmar. However, he did "strongly offer" the suggestion that the US wanted to be involved in Myanmar's electoral process scheduled for next year. "I believe it is impossible for the rest of the world to believe elections are free and fair if Aung San Suu Kyi is not released and the NLD [National League for Democracy] should be included [in the election process]," he told the regime.

Special access

Webb may have been acting in his capacity as chairman of the East Asia and Pacific Affairs Sub-committee and not as a diplomatic official, but he was granted access to both Senior General Than Shwe, the country's reclusive leader, and surprisingly Suu Kyi. In comparison, United Nations special rapporteur to Myanmar, Ibarahim Gambari, had been consistently denied an audience with Than Shwe, and has consistently been denied access to Suu Kyi since August last year. Even UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon was rebuffed in attempts to hold a meeting with Than Shwe in the wake of last year's destructive Cyclone Nargis.

Some observers think intense international and regional pressure led to the Webb meetings, while others believe it is because of Webb's known anti-sanctions and pro-engagement stance. Still others say it is part of an attempt by the regime to court better relations with the US, possibly at the urging of China. Webb claims the meetings were a result of several months of negotiation with the government.

Webb called the regime's release of Yettaw and their granting of meetings with Suu Kyi and members of her NLD party, "a hopeful gesture". However, many analysts and members of the exile political community are not as hopeful. They say Webb is simply playing into the hands of the regime, particularly in consideration of the timing of the visit directly after the Suu Kyi verdict, and will be used to validate the junta's position. A letter sent to Webb from three groups inside Myanmar expressed amazement that he would travel to Myanmar at this time.

Yettaw's release was not a major diplomatic breakthrough. Several foreigners have been arrested in Myanmar for involvement in politics in the past 20 years, including Briton Rachel Goldwyn, who was arrested for singing pro-democracy songs in central Yangon in 1999, and another Briton, James Mawdsley, who was arrested three different times between 1997 and 1999. Almost all of them were released within days or weeks, usually accompanied by statements from the regime about its leniency and hopeful statements from governments of new windows of opportunity.

Critics claim the release of Yettaw and discussions between Myanmar government officials and Webb are a way for the regime to deflect international criticism in the wake of the Suu Kyi verdict. According to Aung Din, executive director of the US Campaign for Burma (Myamnar), "This is just Senior General Than Shwe giving an award to Senator Webb for his efforts on US engagement with the regime, increasing US business opportunities in [Myanmar] and his opposition to sanctions."

Webb said his trip had "laid a foundation of goodwill and confidence building so we can have a better solution in the future". He predicated that "solution", however, on the goal of bringing freedom and democracy to Myanmar. Webb's stance on Myanmar seems to hinge on increased diplomatic engagement and the eventual removal of sanctions.

Webb is a vocal opponent of economic and financial sanctions against Myanmar, claiming that they only serve to isolate the regime while denying the country's people exposure to outside political and economic ideas that could help bring change. Sanctions, he has argued, have denied opportunities to American businesses and undercut US influence in the country. In March, Webb called sanctions "counter-productive in terms of our ability to affect the difficulties faced by the [Myanmar] people".

At Sunday's press conference in Bangkok, Webb said governments should speak more directly and individually and collectively to put pressure on China, Myanmar's main patron and ally. "Those calling for sanctions should now be encouraging China to join in finding a solution to Myanmar's internal stalemate," he said. "China has an obligation to end its silence and assist in ending the Aung San Suu Kyi situation."

Critics of sanctions have noted that neighbors Thailand, India and especially China have increased their investments while the West attempts to isolate the country. Judging from his comments, Webb seems to think that increased Chinese influence in Myanmar is dangerous both to the country and the larger region. "My own idea is that sanctions only work when you have all the countries involved participating," Webb said.

He said growing Chinese influence "affects the balance in Southeast Asia" and is "unhealthy to the region". It is necessary, he said, to preserve the vital balance of power among the nations of Southeast Asia as the region continues to evolve. China and Southeast Asia analysts often view China's deployment of "soft power" initiatives in the region as diminishing US influence, particularly after Washington prioritized post September 11, 2001, counter-terrorism policies in the region.

Webb's views on Myanmar are not popular with Myanmar's exile community, despite his careful wording of ending sanctions and isolation for "the Myanmar people". Its clear to most that Webb and the Obama administration have larger realpolitik goals of containing China in mind.

[Brian McCartan is a Bangkok-based freelance journalist. He may be reached at brianpm@comcast.net.]

See also:


Home | Site Map | Calendar & Events | News Services | Links & Resources | Contact Us