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Myanmar elections: Aung San Suu Kyi's party poised for landslide triumph

Sydney Morning Herald - November 9, 2015

Lindsay Murdoch, Yangon – A spokesman for Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's party has told supporters Monday it is heading towards a landslide victory in Myanmar's first free and fair elections in 25 years.

"We are winning more than 70 per cent of seats around the country, but the election commission has not officially confirmed yet," said NLD spokesman Win Htein.

Ms Suu Kyi has urged her supporters not to provoke their rivals. The 70-year-old Nobel laureate told jubilant members of her National League for Democracy on Monday that official results won't be announced soon "but I think you all have the idea of the results".

Scrutineers say Ms Suu Kyi won up to 90 percent of votes in some main city electorates, decimating the ruling military-backed party.

"I want to remind you all that even candidates who didn't win have to accept the winners but it is important not to provoke the candidates who didn't win to make them feel bad," Ms Suu Kyi said in her first public comments since polls closed on Sunday. "It is still a bit early to congratulate our candidates who will be the winners."

Ms Suu Kyi's supporters were jubilant on Monday even though she filed a complaint saying a change in procedure by the country's election commission could delay results and "violates the law".

Party officials said there were "worrying signs" of large numbers of "advance votes" arriving unexpectedly in some constituencies late on Sunday night and early on Monday.

But as election officials began releasing results of vote counts across the country, the NLD emerged as the party with the largest number of parliamentary seats, allowing Ms Suu Kyi to shape the formation of the next government.

"We're leading in the race but we can't say for sure we'll win two-thirds of the seats in parliament that would enable us to form an independent government without forming a coalition," said NLD senior official and spokesman Han Tha Myint.

The NLD needs a landslide of 67 per cent of contested seats to secure a majority in Myanmar's parliament, as 25 per cent of seats are automatically allocated to the country's powerful military.

But Larry Jagan, a prominent Yangon-based analyst and commentator, said " all the indicators are that it is looking like a landslide for the NLD".

Ms Suu Kyi's supporters were further buoyed by an exit poll carried out by the Eleven news group, a local media organisation, that showed 90 percent of voters had backed her party, compared with just five percent for the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party.

In a shock result, powerful ruling USDP politician Shwe Mann conceded defeat in his lower house seat on Monday.

The former general had been seen as candidate for the presidency before he was purged as head of the party in August. Mr Shwe Mann had developed close ties with Ms Suu Kyi in his role as speaker of the lower house, prompting speculation he could take a key role in bridging the divide between the NLD and military after the new government is formed.

Of the country's 32 million eligible voters, 80 per cent cast ballots in the election, which was largely without violence and monitored by 11,000 foreign and local observers.

Many voters had never cast ballots before in a country ruled by superstitious and despotic generals for more than half a century.

A military junta refused to transfer power after Ms Suu Kyi's party overwhelmingly won an election in 1990, and implemented a brutal crackdown that kept Ms Suu Kyi under house arrest for 15 years.

The generals allowed a transfer of power to a quasi-civilian government in 2011, before prime minister Thein Sein began implementing social and economic reforms.

The still powerful military has promised to honour the election results and said it would not block Ms Suu Kyi's party taking power if it could secure a parliamentary majority.

But analysts say it will be critical for the country's future for Ms Suu Kyi to work with the military, which under the constitution controls key security ministries and maintains a grip on the economy through vast business conglomerates.

On the eve of the election Ms Suu Kyi antagonised the generals when she declared she would run the country "above" a president if she wins, a plan that appears to contravene the constitution which states that no-one is above the president.

She is barred from taking the role herself because of a clause in the constitution stating that a person cannot assume the post if they have a foreign spouse or child. Ms Suu Kyi's late husband and two children are British.

The country's incumbent Union Solidarity and Development Party has declared its officials would not obey Ms Suu Kyi if she runs the government above a president, escalating tensions ahead of potentially volatile post-poll negotiations.

Nicholas Farrelly, director of the Myanmar Research Centre at the Australian National University, said there now needs to be compromise and meaningful accommodations from all sides in Myanmar. "The alternative, as Myanmar history shows, is more war, strife and trauma," Dr Farrelly said.

Preliminary official results of the poll are expected to be released on Tuesday. Parliament is due to sit again in early February.

Source: http://www.smh.com.au/world/myanmar-elections-aung-san-suu-kyis-party-poised-for-landslide-triumph-20151109-gktz6t.html.

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