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Thaksin Shinawatra ruling to reignite 'war'
The Australian - February 22, 2010
Emma-Kate Symons – All sides of the political divide are calling it "D-Day" and "Judgment Day" or "The Final Showdown" that could change the face of Thai politics.
This Friday's keenly awaited Supreme Court ruling on Thaksin Shinawatra's $US2.2 billion ($2.4bn) frozen assets is looming as a flashpoint battle in the protracted "war" between the fugitive former primer minister's "red shirts" and the royalist military-backed "yellow shirts".
Thais are preparing for a wave of protests led by Thaksin's red-shirted followers, and the likelihood of bloody demonstrations that many fear could descend into crippling street violence, further political unrest, and another hit to the fragile economy.
The court decision is expected to go against the populist Thaksin – beloved in rural areas but detested by the Bangkok elite – who was ousted in the 2006 military coup and faces corruption charges if he returns from international exile to Thailand.
Australia, Britain and the US have advised tourists to steer clear of Bangkok in the coming week, after an unexploded bomb was found outside the Supreme Court, and a grenade was hurled at a government building.
In between the opposing camps sits the precarious 15-month-old coalition government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. The Thaksin-backed political group United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship views the smooth-talking Eton- and Oxford-educated Abhisit as a pawn of the military and royalist Bangkok establishment.
Failing to keep the protests under control could endanger the future of the government if recent Thai history is any guide. Political observers suggest factions in the military are eyeing the unrest as a chance to once again install army rule in a nation that has experienced 18 coups or attempted putsches in the more than six decades since King Bhumibol Adulyadej assumed the throne.
Already, central Bangkok has been brought to a standstill by Thaksin's backers, who say their hero's fortune, seized in the 2006 coup, is not the "bandit government's".
Mr Abhisit is not taking any chances. Tens of thousands of troops and armed guards are fanning out across the capital and in the rural areas in the north and northeast where Thaksin's support is strongest. The police and army are setting up checkpoints around the capital to rein in mass protests, and security has been stepped up at government buildings and other courthouses in Bangkok and the provinces.
Personal security has been assigned to the nine judges who will rule on the future of Thaksin's fortune and perhaps the nation's political direction.
Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban has not ruled out invoking the Internal Security Act to curb demonstrations if they turn violent, allowing the swift deployment of troops.
In April 2009, protests in Bangkok became bloody when red shirts fought pitched street battles with police. This followed the abrupt cancellation of the ASEAN meeting in Pattaya and the December 2008 seizure of Bangkok International Airport by the royalists, stranding hundreds of thousands of foreign tourists in Thailand.
But the Supreme Court may attempt to placate Thaksin's supporters with only a partial confiscation of assets.
Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, wrote last week that according to an "insider", "the nine judges assigned to the case are well aware that their verdict could change the face of Thai politics".
"Therefore, they are trying to calm the situation and reach some kind of compromise with the pro-Thaksin movement," he said.
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