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Thai government fears coup plan in the works

Sydney Morning Herald - January 7, 2014

Lindsay Murdoch, Bangkok – Thailand's democratically elected government fears the country's powerful military will be lured into staging a coup if anti-government protesters shut down Bangkok again next Monday.

Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is also facing legal challenges to her government's plans for a snap election on February 2, including the possible laying of charges against 381 MPs for trying to change the constitution last year.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission is deciding whether to lay charges against the MPs over a government bid to reform Thailand's Senate, which the Constitutional Court ruled on November 20 was unlawful. The country's upper house is made up of 76 elected members and 74 appointed ones, and the government had wanted to make it fully elected.

Sunisa Letphakkawat, a spokeswoman for the government, has raised suspicions about a "secret" plan by anti-government leaders to organise a small violent attack on protesters during the shutdown, which would set a coup in motion.

But protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban denies any secret plan, despite meeting top military commanders in private last weekend. "If a coup happens, it would result from the [failings] of the government," he said.

The highly politicised military, which has staged 18 coups or attempted coups since the 1930s, has emerged as a key player ahead of next week's political showdown as Ms Yingluck's grip on power becomes increasingly precarious.

Rumours of a coup swept Bangkok after the army announced it is transporting troops, helicopters, tanks and other armaments into the capital for an Army Day parade on January 18. "Army silence sparks coup panic," read the Bangkok Post's page one headline on Tuesday.

As the crisis has worsened since November, the military has refused to rally behind the government or to prevent protesters storming and occupying key government buildings.

Army commander Prayuth Chan-ocha said in December that the "door was neither closed nor open" when asked about intervention to break the crisis. Earlier he had insisted the military would not intervene as it did in 2006 to topple the government of Ms Yingluck's elder brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, who is living in Dubai to avoid a jail sentence for corruption.

The coup deepened a bitter political divide in the country of 67 million people, which has endured years of political upheaval that some analysts have warned could escalate towards widespread violence and even civil war.

The protesters accuse Ms Yingluck of being a puppet of her brother and claim the government has lost its legitimacy because of corruption and misrule.

They want an "appointed" people's assembly to oversee reforms to change Thailand's democratic system, which has seen voters in the north and north-east provinces elect Mr Thaksin or his proxies in the past four polls. Ms Yingluck's calling of an election in December failed to defuse the crisis.

The economy has taken a US$120 billion hit, analysts say. The Thai baht has fallen to its lowest level since 2010, stocks are down, buyers have dumped Thai bonds and the number of tourist arrivals has dropped dramatically as airlines cancelled scores of flights to the country at the height of the tourist season.

Mr Suthep has announced plans for protesters to blockade 20 major intersections across Bangkok starting at 9am on Monday and continuing for days unless Ms Yingluck dismantles her government and calls off the election, which she is expected to win.

The Constitutional Court is also set to rule on a draft amendment to the constitution that would give the government almost full authority to commit the country to most international agreements without having to obtain Parliament's approval.

If the court also finds that amendment unlawful, MPs who voted for it could face a fresh inquiry by the anti-corruption commission.

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